thoughts on technology and culture, politics, and information design
Sunday, January 08, 2006
Digital Music Dream Week and more
Since the MacWorld expo is tomorrow, I thought I would post some thoughts and predictions about what is next. This topic has already been well covered by the mainstream media and bloggers, but as an Apple investor I might as well get my thoughts out there.
I was pleasantly surprised to read that online music sales in the period between Christmas and New Years were up 300% from a year ago. 20 million some tracks were sold. While it is speculated some of the surge is related to gift cards, gift cards were available last year as well and did not cause such a stir. The rise of digital music sales isn't all that surprising to me, and is reflective of the fact that the world has many new digital media player owners since December 25 than before.
What I'm really curious about is how many music videos and TV shows are being sold through iTunes and other sources. I would expect some info on this, along with new content deals tomorrow at the MacWorld expo. I believe this market is going to be huge as it becomes easier to download a show and watch it on a TV, computer, or digital video player. If you have some extra money, buy some Apple stock because at least in the short-term Apple will be a leader in online video distribution.
As someone who only watches a few TV shows, I hate having to pay for a huge bundle of cable content for only a couple shows I view as gems. DVDs of shows from NetFlix could address the mess of content, but I don't want to wait either. Apple is further along in putting the pieces together for a true ala-carte system than anyone else, and I don't think it'll be too long until I can cancel cable, purchase only those shows I want (when they come out), and watch them on my computer, TV, or on that video iPod I don't have yet.
I predict Apple stock will reach 100 before the summer on increasingly positive news around video...as to tomorrow's expo, here is what I expect:
Intel based iBook - going to happen and it would probably be my next laptop except I'm waiting for the powerbook
Intel based MacMini - very likely to be announced, and it will be suitable as both a box hooked up to a TV or a stand-alone computer
Video streaming device - an airport express type device to watch video on a TV will be announced
Major content deals - the video store is going to have a LOT more content announced
iPod Shuffle - revamped shuffle will be released...no new video iPod yet
The new iBook, mac mini, and video streaming device will support the new 802.11n standard - the combination will make it possible to download and view videos on TV easily, quickly, and effectively, and right now (provided you purchase the new stuff). I hope the resolution of videos is improved so the quality issues are effectively addressed.
Lets hope my predictions are accurate. Apple stock often drops on the day of the expo but will start moving towards 100 swiftly.